The Voting Equation

2.20.57pm BST (GMT +0100) Thu 20th Apr 2006

According to The Electoral Commission, motivation to vote can be assessed by an equation:

X = [C + I + P + (VxD) + N] / S

where:

C=Personal contact by party

I=A belief that any of the parties can handle important issue

P=Parental interest in politics

V=Perception that my vote will count

D=Sense of voting as a duty

N=Perception of the nature of the national competition between the parties

S=Perception of how safe the local seat is

People are asked rank each of these from 1 - 5 to establish the value of X - motivation to vote.

The equation suggests that you could be several times more motivated into voting if you live in a highly marginal seat, than if you live in a very safe one.

Given that North Norfolk was recently transformed into a highly marginal seat into one with a 10,000 majority in a very high turnout election (73%), it will be interesting to see what the turnout is next time. Knowing how dedicated people are to their MP in North Norfolk, I doubt we'll see a huge drop!

Link: http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/