The Voting Equation
April 20, 2006 2:20 PM
According to The Electoral Commission, motivation to vote can be assessed by an equation:
X = [C + I + P + (VxD) + N] / S
where:
C=Personal contact by party
I=A belief that any of the parties can handle important issue
P=Parental interest in politics
V=Perception that my vote will count
D=Sense of voting as a duty
N=Perception of the nature of the national competition between the parties
S=Perception of how safe the local seat is
People are asked rank each of these from 1 - 5 to establish the value of X - motivation to vote.
The equation suggests that you could be several times more motivated into voting if you live in a highly marginal seat, than if you live in a very safe one.
Given that North Norfolk was recently transformed into a highly marginal seat into one with a 10,000 majority in a very high turnout election (73%), it will be interesting to see what the turnout is next time. Knowing how dedicated people are to their MP in North Norfolk, I doubt we'll see a huge drop!
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